Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th July 2009
Organised by: Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs
Marketing Support from: Asia-Pacific Technology Network

Opening remarks

• Bernice Lee, Research Director for Energy, Environment and Resource Governance, Chatham House
• Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Chairs

• Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
• Dr Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House
• Rob Bradley, Director of International Climate Policy, World Resources Institute
• Professor Michael Grubb, Visiting Professor of Climate Change and Energy Policy,Imperial College, London
• Bernice Lee, Research Director for Energy, Environment and Resource Governance, Chatham House
• Kirsty Hamilton, Associate Fellow, Chatham House
• Nick Mabey, Chief Executive, E3G Third Generation Environmentalism

Keynote Speakers

• Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
• Joan Ruddock MP, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Energy and Climate Change, UK
• Alcinda de Abreu, Minister of the Environment, Mozambique
• Ambassador Kevin Conrad, Prime Minister’s Special Envoy & Ambassador for Environment and Climate Change, Department of the Prime Minister and National Executive Council,Papua New Guinea
• Achim Steiner, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Speakers

• Daniel Schrag, Professor of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Director, Harvard University Center for the Environment
• Graeme Sweeney, Executive Vice President, Future Fuels & CO2, Shell International Petroleum Co Ltd
• Nick Mabey, Chief Executive, E3G Third Generation Environmentalism
• Li Ting, Director, Climate Change Office Department of Treaty and Law Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China
• Jos Delbeke, Deputy Director-General, Directorate General for Environment
• Elliot Diringer, Vice President, International Strategies, Pew Center on Global Climate Change
• Roland Verstappen, Vice President, International Affairs, ArcelorMittal
• Sergey Tulinov, Special Assistant to the Head Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring
• Martin Khor, Executive Director, The South Centre
• John Lanchbery, Principal Climate Change Advisor, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB)/ Birdlife
• Vincent Mages, Vice President, Climate Change Initiatives, Lafarge
• Henry Derwent, President and CEO, International Emissions Trading Association

Panellists

• Speaker from The European Climate Foundation or Project Catalyst
• Bernice Lee* Research Director for Energy, Environment and Resource GovernanceChatham House

Panel discussants

• Martin Khor
• John Lanchbery
• Vincent Mages
• Henry Derwent
• Vanessa Havard-Williams*
• Global Head of Environment, Linklaters LLP
• Guy Ryder*
• General Secretary
• International Trade Union Confederation

Moderated Panel Discussion

• Dr Tomas Kåberger, Director-General, Swedish Energy Agency
• Ambassador Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem Mohamad, Permanent Representative of the Republic of the Sudan to the United Nations and Chairman of the Group of 77
• Speaker from India*
• Richard Burrett, Earth Capital Partners

Expert panel

• Olaf Ehrenkrona, Political Adviser/Chief of StaffMinistry for Foreign Affairs, Sweden
• Christian Hald-Mortensen, Advisor, International Coordination (COP-15)Ministry of Climate and Energy, Denmark
• Tom Delay, Chief Executive, The Carbon Trust
• Mark Kenber, Policy Director, The Climate Group
• Rob Bradley, Director of International Climate Policy, World Resources Institute

Can agreement be reached on a new climate deal in Copenhagen in 2009?

Since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) meeting in Bali in December 2007, the UNFCC negotiations have emerged as the most likely forum for international agreement on climate change action. 

The deadline for reaching agreement is at the UN meeting in Copenhagen at the end of 2009 in order to have a treaty in place when the Kyoto treaty expires in 2012.
There is now some international consensus, but there is much still to be settled that requires unprecedented levels of international co-operation.  This conference will focus on the politics of reaching agreement, and will ask where there may be the need for collaboration and compromise.

The roles of major players like the US, China and Russia will be discussed, as well as developing and least developed countries’ insistence that a deal should be equitable and support their development pathways.

Are the political and economic conditions right for reaching agreement, in the light of widespread recession?  Is a low carbon deal in countries’ best economic interests? What will business do if agreement is not reached?  What political, regulatory and fiscal frameworks are necessary to deliver low carbon regimes?

DAY ONE Monday 6 July 2009

Session One - Defining Success on Climate Change Agreement

This session will define the success of agreement at the UNFCCC’s meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009. 

• What are the parameters for success on a climate change agreement?
• Based on prevailing scientific opinion, what are the essential elements of multilateral climate change agreement to avoid dangerous climate change?  What are the basic minimum targets that should be met in the agreement? What should the timing be?
• What would be the impact of a less ambitious deal on climate security?
• What are credible targets – tough enough to have an impact, realistic to implement? For rich countries?  For poor countries?

 

Session Two - Making the Politics Work

This session will outline the main political challenges to reaching agreement.

• What is the state of play of the UN discussions politically? Will agreement be reached in Copenhagen at the end of 2009?
• What national targets are rich countries (the EU, USA, Australia, Japan) likely to agree to meet, using which baselines, and by when? What policies and measures will developed countries ask developing countries to adopt?
• How quickly is the new US administration deciding on its priorities for climate change? Will the US Congress be ready to ratify an international climate  treaty?
• Will governments persevere in putting a price on carbon? How ambitious will developed countries be in the light of business concerns about competition from non-signatories, especially in a recession? Will governments be bold enough with carbon pricing to incentivize investment in clean technology? Can this be reconciled with business clamouring for regulatory clarity?
• What will developing and least developed countries ask for in order to reach agreement? Developing countries have agreed to deviate from business as usual (BAU), but when by? How will ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ be interpreted?
• The respective roles of China, Russia, India and the USA in reaching international agreement.

 

DAY TWO Tuesday 7 July 2009

Session Three - Elements of the Deal

This session will focus on the crucial elements of a global climate change deal.  

• What are the essential elements and which elements are important but add-ons? Which elements will be supported by which negotiators?
• How would the elements work and achieve scale?
• What are the mechanisms and how can they be measured, reported, and verified (MRV-ed)?
• How will they be financed?

• Technology Transfer
• How can the parties to the conference get beyond deadlock on technology transfer?
• Forest finance and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
• Sectoral approaches
• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

 

Finance Panel

• How are government economic stimuli to shift investment and financial flows into low carbon technologies and infrastructure working?
• Within the UN process, what are the tools and mechanisms that can and will enhance financing for mitigation, adaptation and technology co-operation?
• Allocation, access, modes of disbursement and MRV-ing delivery of financial support
• The roles of  international public finance, and national public sector  and private sector finance

Session Four  - Beyond the Deal: Targets, timing, implementation, and complementary action

• How ambitious will agreement at Copenhagen manage to be? 
• Are the political and economic conditions right for reaching agreement? What is the extent of political commitment of the main players to reach agreement? Which governments see agreement as being in their broader economic interest?
• How specific does agreement need to be?  What is fundamental to agreement, and what, given the amount of detail that has yet to be addressed or resolved, can be settled after agreement? Can a principal agreement and its mechanisms be in place, with defining action to be settled after 2009?

• What needs to be done to enhance ratification and implementation?
• What are the complementary and supporting routes to agreement on climate action?  The EU Presidency?  The G8? Bilateral agreements between major players?
• How effective will governments’ green stimulus packages be?
• What will business do if agreement is not reached?
• What political, regulatory and fiscal frameworks are necessary to deliver low carbon regimes?

 

Location: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 10 St James's Square, London SW1Y 4LE
Nearest Tube Station: Piccadilly Circus
Date: Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th July 2009
Time: Monday 9.00am  - 17:40pm  Tuesday 9.00am – 16:00pm
Pricing:  This is a fee-paying conference. Prices will be added shortly.                
Info:   www.chathamhouse.org.uk/climate_change09